The Role of "Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)" Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The Delta variant of SARS-COV-2 has replaced previously circulating strains around the world in 2021. Sporadic outbreaks of the Delta variant in China have posed a concern about how to properly respond to the battle against evolving COVID-19. Here, we analyzed the "hierarchical and classified prevention and control (HCPC)" measures strategy deployed during the recent Guangzhou outbreak. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-pre-symptomatic-infectious-recovered (SEPIR) model was developed and applied to study a range of different scenarios to evaluate the effectiveness of policy deployment. We simulated severe different scenarios to understand policy implementation and timing of implementation. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission and duration of transmission. The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Based on our simulation, the outbreak would become out of control with 7 million estimated infections under the assumption of the absence of any interventions than the 153 reported cases in reality in Guangzhou. The simulation on delayed implementation of interventions showed that the total case numbers would also increase by 166.67%-813.07% if the interventions were delayed by 3 days or 7 days. CONCLUSIONS: It may be concluded that timely and more precise interventions including mass testing and graded community management are effective measures for Delta variant containment in China.

Changes and correlation of dengue fever epidemic and Aedes albopictus density in Haizhu district, Guangzhou before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

To analyze the population density, seasonal fluctuation of Aedes albopictus in Haizhu District, Guangzhou from 2017 to 2021, so as to provide a scientific basis for the monitoring and prevention and control of mosquito vector density of dengue fever. The data of dengue fever cases and Aedes surveillance data in Haizhu District, Guangzhou from 2017 to 2021 were collected, and the data of 2017-2019 and 2020-2021 were grouped to compare and analyze the characteristics of dengue epidemic and the density fluctuation of Aedes mosquitoes. A total of 517 dengue cases were reported in Haizhu District, Guangzhou from 2017 to 2021, of which only 7 cases were reported from 2020 to 2021, and the peak period of reported cases every year was August to November. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a positive correlation between the number of local cases and the number of imported cases(rs=0.63, P<0.05) and BI(rs=0.73, P<0.05). The peak density of Aedes was from May to October, and the differences of mean BI(X~2=1 143.40,P<0.001), MOI(X~2=188.30,P<0.001), and SSI(X~2=4 499.43,P<0.001)before and after the COVID-19 pandemic were statistically significant. In general, before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, the density of Aedes in high-risk areas was higher than that in low-risk areas. After COVID-19 pandemic, the number of reported cases and the density of Aedes in Haizhu District decreased, but the density of Aedes in the high-risk area was still higher than that in low-risk areas, and a certain risk of outbreak still existed, so the government should continue to take more precise measures to strictly prevent dengue epidemic.

Disparities in COVID-19 clinical studies from high-income and low-and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the disparities between COVID-19 studies conducted in high-income countries (HICs) and low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We used the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform to identify COVID-19-related studies registered from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2021. The World Bank definition was used to classify countries as high-, upper-middle-, lower-middle-, and low-income. The last three were considered to be LMICs. We examined the disparities in response speed, classification of medicines and vaccines, and registration and results reporting compliance between COVID-19 studies conducted in HICs and LMICs. RESULTS: We included 12,396 COVID-19 studies, with 6631 (53.5%) from HICs. HIC-registered studies reached a peak of 1039 in April 2020, whereas LMICs had only 440 studies. Of the 6969 interventional trials, those from HICs showed higher registration compliance (2199, 62.3% vs 1979, 57.6%, P <0.001) and results reporting compliance (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.28-0.55, P < 0.001) than LMICs. HICs also conducted significantly more small-molecule drug (956, 57.5% vs 868, 41.2%, P <0.001) and messenger RNA vaccine trials (135, 32.9% vs 19, 4.8%, P <0.001) than LMICs. CONCLUSION: HICs conducted COVID-19 trials with faster response speed and higher registration and publication compliance and produced more innovative pharmaceutical and vaccine products to combat COVID-19 than LMICs.

Epidemiological investigation and analysis of an outbreak of human rhinovirus infection in a college in Guangzhou

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human rhinovirus outbreak in a college in Guangzhou, and provide a better evidence for the prevention and control of human rhinovirus outbreaks. Method: Epidemiological investigation was carded out for the influenza-like illness outbreak epidemic in the a college in Guangzhou city on 3rd November, 2020, and the progress of the cases were followed up, and samples were tested for SAILS-COV-2, influenza virus, and respiratory poly-pathogens.

Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study.

China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (Rt) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.

Workplace factors can predict the stress levels of healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: First interim results of a multicenter follow-up study.

Background: Research is lacking on the long-term influence of workplace factors on the mental health of health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We distributed two online surveys to health care workers between May and October 2020 (T1) and between February and April 2021 (T2). Perceived stress, coronavirus-related risks, and workplace factors were measured via self-report questionnaires at both time points. We conducted hierarchical linear regression to investigate the predictive factors for high stress. Results: A total of 2,110 participants from seven countries and 4,240 participants from nine countries were enrolled at T1 and T2, respectively. Among them, 612 participated in both surveys. We called this cohort T1 + T2. High stress was reported in 53.8 and 61.6% of participants at T1 and T2, respectively. In cohort T1 + T2, compared with the baseline, the level of stress rose significantly (6.0 ± 2.9 vs. 6.4 ± 3.1), as did health/safety in the workplace (3.9 ± 0.8 vs. 4.2 ± 0.7). Unfortunately, we did not detect any significant difference concerning support in the workplace. Among all factors at baseline, being older than 35 [ß (95% CI) = -0.92 (-1.45, -0.40)], support [-0.80 (-1.29, -0.32)], and health/safety in the workplace [-0.33 (-0.65, -0.01)] were independent protective factors, while a positive history of mental disorders [0.81 (0.26, 1.37)] and rejection in private life [0.86 (0.48, 1.25)] were risk factors for high stress at T2. Conclusion: To relieve the high stress of health care workers, organizational-level approaches should be implemented, especially measures designed to enhance support, health/safety in the workplace, and to reduce the rejection of the public.

Farmers' cognition of the COVID-19 outbreak, risk perception and willingness of green production.

Existing literature reports that COVID-19 outbreak may affect people's risk perceptions, with disturbances ranging from mild negative emotional reactions to overall mental health. At the same time, the pneumonia pandemic reveals all the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of our ecosystem and makes people reflect on traditional ecologically harmful production practices. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to review the existing scientific literature on these variables, through a survey and empirical analysis, in order to present and comment on the effects and mechanisms of influence between them. The results showed that: (1) Increasing farmers'cognition of COVID-19 outbreak could significantly enhance the green production willingness. Specifically, the probability of "Very willing"to participate in green production increased by 29.9% for each unit of increase in cognition. (2) Farmers'cognition of COVID-19 outbreak can significantly enhance the level of risk perception and thus enhance their green production willingness, that is, risk perception is an important transmission medium of this effect. (3)The analysis of inter-generational difference showed that the impact of cognition of COVID-19 outbreak on green production willingness was significant for both the new generation and the old generation. On the basis of this, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as strengthening the propaganda and education of natural ecological environment protection, establishing the propaganda mechanism of green agricultural products market in the later period of epidemic situation, raising farmers'risk perception level through multi-channels and so on.

Investigation of a cluster of COVID-19 cases imported through inbound air flight

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics and explore source of infection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases imported through an inbound air flight from Kenya to Guangzhou, China.

Evaluation of a Functional Single Nucleotide Polymorphism of the SARS-CoV-2 Receptor ACE2 That Is Potentially Involved in Long COVID.

Since the occurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has led to a global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A better understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor ACE2 at the genetic level would help combat COVID-19, particularly for long COVID. We performed a genetic analysis of ACE2 and searched for its common potential single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with minor allele frequency >0.05 in both European and Chinese populations that would contribute to ACE2 gene expression variation. We thought that the variation of the ACE2 expression would be an important biological feature that would strongly affect COVID-19 symptoms, such as "brain fog", which is highlighted by the fact that ACE2 acts as a major cellular receptor for SARS-CoV-2 attachment and is highly expressed in brain tissues. Based on the human GTEx gene expression database, we found rs2106809 exhibited a significant correlation with the ACE2 expression among multiple brain and artery tissues. This expression correlation was replicated in an independent European brain eQTL database, Braineac. rs2106809*G also displays significantly higher frequency in Asian populations than in Europeans and displays a protective effect (p = 0.047) against COVID-19 hospitalization when comparing hospitalized COVID-19 cases with non-hospitalized COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 test-negative samples with European ancestry from the UK Biobank. Furthermore, we experimentally demonstrated that rs2106809*G could upregulate the transcriptional activity of ACE2. Therefore, integrative analysis and functional experiment strongly support that ACE2 SNP rs2106809 is a functional brain eQTL and its potential involvement in long COVID, which warrants further investigation.

Construction of SEIQCR epidemic model and its application in the evaluation of public health interventions on COVID-19 in Guangzhou. (Special Issue: Spatio-temporal dynamics analysis, risk assessment and emergency management for COVID-19 epidemic.) [Chinese]

Objective To develop a dynamic model of susceptible(S), exposed people in the latent period(E), infective(I), quarantined(Q), confirmed(C), and recovered(R)(SEIQCR)to evaluate the role of interventions and control the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)epidemic in Guangzhou. Methods Based on the SEIR propagation dynamics model, the modules of "quarantined" and "confirmed" cases were added to establish a new SEIQCR model. The epidemic data in Guangzhou from Jan. 13 to Mar. 17, 2020 were fitted to obtain the parameters of SEIQCR model. Results The number of predicted cases based on these parameters was highly consistent with the actual incidence(R2=0.93). Time-dependent reproduction number declined rapidly with the implementation of first level response to COVID-19, indicating that local transmission was effectively controlled. Conclusion The preventative and control measures were effective. Local government should continue strictly implementing the isolation system and cut off the transmission channels to curb the transmission of COVID-19. The SEIQCR model can provide methodological reference for intervention assessment in other regions.

Evaluation of a Functional Single Nucleotide Polymorphism of the SARS-CoV-2 Receptor ACE2 That Is Potentially Involved in Long COVID

Since the occurrence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has led to a global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. A better understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor ACE2 at the genetic level would help combat COVID-19, particularly for long COVID. We performed a genetic analysis of ACE2 and searched for its common potential single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with minor allele frequency >0.05 in both European and Chinese populations that would contribute to ACE2 gene expression variation. We thought that the variation of the ACE2 expression would be an important biological feature that would strongly affect COVID-19 symptoms, such as “brain fog”, which is highlighted by the fact that ACE2 acts as a major cellular receptor for SARS-CoV-2 attachment and is highly expressed in brain tissues. Based on the human GTEx gene expression database, we found rs2106809 exhibited a significant correlation with the ACE2 expression among multiple brain and artery tissues. This expression correlation was replicated in an independent European brain eQTL database, Braineac. rs2106809*G also displays significantly higher frequency in Asian populations than in Europeans and displays a protective effect (p = 0.047) against COVID-19 hospitalization when comparing hospitalized COVID-19 cases with non-hospitalized COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 test-negative samples with European ancestry from the UK Biobank. Furthermore, we experimentally demonstrated that rs2106809*G could upregulate the transcriptional activity of ACE2. Therefore, integrative analysis and functional experiment strongly support that ACE2 SNP rs2106809 is a functional brain eQTL and its potential involvement in long COVID, which warrants further investigation.

Crucial control measures to contain China's first Delta variant outbreak.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant flared up in late May in Guangzhou, China. Transmission characteristics of Delta variant were analysed for 153 confirmed cases and two complete transmission chains with seven generations were fully presented. A rapid transmission occurred in five generations within 10 days. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.60 (95% confidence interval: 2.50-5.30). After redefining the concept of close contact, the proportion of confirmed cases discovered from close contacts increased from 43% to 100%. With the usage of a yellow health code, the potential exposed individuals were self-motivated to take a nucleic acid test and regained public access with a negative testing result. Facing the massive requirement of screening, novel facilities like makeshift inflatable laboratories were promptly set up as a vital supplement and 17 cases were found, with 1 pre-symptomatic. The dynamic adjustment of these three interventions resulted in the decline of Rt from 5.00 to 1.00 within 9 days. By breaking the transmission chain and eliminating the transmission source through extending the scope of the close-contact tracing, health-code usage and mass testing, the Guangzhou Delta epidemic was effectively contained.

Transmission and containment of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern in Guangzhou, China: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The first community transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant of concern (VOC) in Guangzhou, China occurred between May and June 2021. Herein, we describe the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak and evaluate the implemented containment measures against this outbreak. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention provided the data on SARS-CoV-2 infections reported between 21 May and 24 June 2021. We estimated the incubation period distribution by fitting a gamma distribution to the data, while the serial interval distribution was estimated by fitting a normal distribution. The instantaneous effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated to reflect the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. Clinical severity was compared for cases with different vaccination statuses using an ordinal regression model after controlling for age. Of the reported local cases, 7/153 (4.6%) were asymptomatic. The median incubation period was 6.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.42-6.71) days and the means of serial intervals decreased from 5.19 (95% CI: 4.29-6.11) to 3.78 (95% CI: 2.74-4.81) days. The incubation period increased with age (P<0.001). A hierarchical prevention and control strategy against COVID-19 was implemented in Guangzhou, with Rt decreasing from 6.83 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.98-10.44) for the 7-day time window ending on 27 May 2021 to below 1 for the time window ending on 8 June and thereafter. Individuals with partial or full vaccination schedules with BBIBP-CorV or CoronaVac accounted for 15.3% of the COVID-19 cases. Clinical symptoms were milder in partially or fully vaccinated cases than in unvaccinated cases (odds ratio [OR] = 0.26 [95% CI: 0.07-0.94]). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The hierarchical prevention and control strategy against COVID-19 in Guangzhou was timely and effective. Authorised inactivated vaccines are likely to contribute to reducing the probability of developing severe disease. Our findings have important implications for the containment of COVID-19.

Positive effects of COVID-19 control measures on influenza prevention

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has now become a pandemic threat to the whole world. At the same time, influenza virus has been active, with influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 sharing the same transmission routes. This article aims to alert clinicians of the presence of co-infection with these two viruses and to describe the effect of the measures taken to fight COVID-19 on influenza prevention and control.

Probable Causes and Risk Factors for Positive SARS-CoV-2 Testing in Recovered Patients: Evidence From Guangzhou, China.

Some patients retested positive for SARS-CoV-2 following negative testing results and discharge. However, the potential risk factors associated with redetectable positive testing results in a large sample of patients who recovered from COVID-19 have not been well-estimated. A total of 745 discharged patients were enrolled between January 30, 2020, and September 9, 2020, in Guangzhou, China. Data on the clinical characteristics, comorbidities, drug therapy, RT-PCR testing, and contact modes to close contacts were collected. Patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after discharge were confirmed by guidelines issued by China. The repositive rate in different settings was calculated. Among 745 discharged patients, 157 (21.1%; 95% CI, 18.2-24.0%) tested repositive and the repositive rate was 16.8% (95% CI, 14.1-24.0%) for nasopharyngeal swabs and 9.7% (95% CI, 7.0-12.5%) for anal swabs. Among them, 55 (35.0%) were asymptomatic, 15 (9.6%) had mild symptoms, 83 (52.9%) had moderate symptoms, and 4 (2.6%) had severe symptoms at the first admission. The days from discharge to repositivity was 8.0 (IQR, 8.0-14.0). Most repositive patients were without clinical symptoms, and lymphocyte cell counts were higher than before being discharged. The likelihood of repositive testing for SARS-CoV-2 RNA was significantly higher among patients who were of younger age (OR, 3.88; 95% CI, 1.74-8.66, 0-17 years old), had asymptomatic severity (OR, 4.36; 95% CI, 1.47-12.95), and did not have clinical symptoms (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.32-2.70, without fever). No other positive patients emerged within the families or close contacts of repositive patients. Our findings support prolonged but intermittent viral shedding as the probable cause for this phenomenon; we need to familiarize with the possibility that the virus will remain endemic.

Analysis of influence factors in the time interval from onset to diagnosis in the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic in Guangzhou

Objective: To investigate the time interval from the onset to the diagnosis of the domestic cases of COVID-19 in Guangzhou, and we analyze the causes of cases with long time intervals.

Optimized collusion prevention for online exams during social distancing.

Online education is important in the COVID-19 pandemic, but online exam at individual homes invites students to cheat in various ways, especially collusion. While physical proctoring is impossible during social distancing, online proctoring is costly, compromises privacy, and can lead to prevailing collusion. Here we develop an optimization-based anti-collusion approach for distanced online testing (DOT) by minimizing the collusion gain, which can be coupled with other techniques for cheating prevention. With prior knowledge of student competences, our DOT technology optimizes sequences of questions and assigns them to students in synchronized time slots, reducing the collusion gain by 2-3 orders of magnitude relative to the conventional exam in which students receive their common questions simultaneously. Our DOT theory allows control of the collusion gain to a sufficiently low level. Our recent final exam in the DOT format has been successful, as evidenced by statistical tests and a post-exam survey.

Air and surface contamination in non-health care settings among 641 environmental specimens of 39 COVID-19 cases.

Little is known about the SARS-CoV-2 contamination of environmental surfaces and air in non-health care settings among COVID-19 cases. We explored the SARS-CoV-2 contamination of environmental surfaces and air by collecting air and swabbing environmental surfaces among 39 COVID-19 cases in Guangzhou, China. The specimens were tested on RT-PCR. The information collected for COVID-19 cases included basic demographic, clinical severity, symptoms at onset, radiological testing, laboratory testing and hospital admission. A total of 641 environmental surfaces and air specimens were collected among 39 COVID-19 cases before disinfection. Among them, 20 specimens (20/641, 3.1%) were tested positive from 9 COVID-19 cases (9/39, 23.1%), with 5 (5/101, 5.0%) positive specimens from 3 asymptomatic cases, 5 (5/220, 2.3%) from 3 mild cases, and 10 (10/374, 2.7%) from 3 moderate cases. All positive specimens were collected within 3 days after diagnosis, and 10 (10/42, 23.8%) were found in toilet (5 on toilet bowl, 4 on sink/faucet/shower, 1 on floor drain), 4 (4/21, 19.0%) in anteroom (2 on water dispenser/cup/bottle, 1 on chair/table, 1 on TV remote), 1 (1/8, 12.5%) in kitchen (1 on dining-table), 1 (1/18, 5.6%) in bedroom (1 on bed/sheet pillow/bedside table), 1 (1/5, 20.0%) in car (1 on steering wheel/seat/handlebar) and 3 (3/20, 21.4%) on door knobs. Air specimens in room (0/10, 0.0%) and car (0/1, 0.0%) were all negative. SARS-CoV-2 was found on environmental surfaces especially in toilet, and may survive for several days. We provided evidence of potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through contamination of environmental surfaces.